Is monetary policy now restrictive in the United States and the euro zone?
Monetary policy is restrictive if the short-term interest rate exceeds the sum of core inflation and real GDP growth. In the United States, one difficulty is the inclusion of rents imputed to homeowners in the price index. We see that: If rents imputed to homeowners are removed from the calculation of core inflation, US monetary policy was neutral at the end of 2023; In the euro zone, monetary policy became slightly restrictive at the end of 2023, due to the disappearance of GDP growth.