Report
Patrick Artus

Is public debt no longer an issue?

The economic policy debate at the time of the presidential election campaign in France showed that public debt no longer seemed to be an important issue. The various candidates presented programmes that would drive up France’s public debt ratio (113% of GDP at the end of 2021) to 117, 120, 130% of GDP and even higher after five years. Is it true that the public debt ratio no longer matters? Let us look at economic issues, not institutional issues (European fiscal rules). What would it take to make the public debt ratio irrelevant? Long-term interest rates would have to remain markedly lower than long-term growth, which will not be the case if the ECB normalises its monetary policy because of inflation. And if long-term interest rates remain low relative to growth, both domestic and non-resident private investors would have to be willing to hold a very high level of public debt, which is not obvious either.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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