Report
Patrick Artus

Is public debt sustainability called into question in the euro zone?

P ublic debt sustainability may indeed be called into question in the euro zone, given: High fiscal deficits; The prospect of weak growth; Rising interest rates. Y et financial markets do not show great concern. There is no sign of high probability of a debt crisis. Why are markets relatively calm (which can be seen in the low level s of risk premia and term premia on euro-zone government bonds)? Because financial markets expect the ECB to ensure governments ’ solvency even if there is high inflation; Because financial markets expect that relatively stringent fiscal rules will be restored in the euro zone; Because financial markets believe that growth in the euro zone will recover thanks to the investment policies implemented. None of this is certain, and there is a risk that public debt sustainability will be lost in the euro zone if the ECB fights inflation, if stringent fiscal rules are not put in place or if euro-zone potential growth does not pick up.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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