Report
Patrick Artus

Is the current crisis in large emerging countries a threat for OECD countries?

Some large emerging countries are once again facing a balance-of-payments crisis: Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, India, South Africa. Trends in interest rates and exchange rates show that these countries are no longer able to finance their external deficits, and they must therefore reduce their domestic demand (via a rise in interest rates, a deterioration in the terms of trade or a restrictive fiscal policy) until these external deficits have been wiped out. Could the resulting loss of growth in these large emerging countries have a substantial and dangerous negative effect on OECD countries? When we look at the orders of magnitude, we see that the full elimination of the external deficits of the five countries (Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, India, South Africa) would equate to a 20% fall in their imports, leading to a loss of GDP of 0.15% for OECD countries, which is noticeable but not considerable .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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