Is the drastic rise in risk aversion in 2018 set to last?

The drastic rise in risk aversion since the beginning of 2018 has had dramatic effects on share prices, credit spreads, oil prices and the euro’s exchange rate. If this drastic rise in risk aversion corrects in 2019, there will be a sharp rise in equity market indices, a tightening of risk premia, a fall in oil prices , etc., and investors should invest now in financial assets at low prices. But is a fall in risk aversion in 2019 plausible? Financial market participants would have to be reassured about : Geopolitical risks (Middle East, Iranian sanctions, Russia, Brexit); The problems in some large emerging countries (Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, etc.); The growth outlook (Europe, China); Protectionist risk; The situation in Italy. There is reason to fear that these problems will continue into 2019: emerging countries with external deficits will remain fragile; a cyclical slowdown is clearly under way ; the situation in Italy could get worse.