Is the euro zone’s monetary policy doomed to become increasingly expansionary?
The ECB did not exit its zero or negative interest-rate policy when the euro-zone economy allowed it (from the end of 2016 to mid-2018); moreover, a series of shocks (the cut s in the Federal Reserve’s interest rates from the summer of 2019, the industrial crisis in 2019 , the coronavirus in 2020) led the ECB to conduct an increasingly expansionary policy; lastly, some euro-zone countries ’ fiscal fragility prompted it to keep interest rates very low. Should we then expect euro-zone monetary policy to be increasingly expansionary forever ? The consequences of this development would be very serious: ruin for bond investors, asset price bubbles as soon as the economy improves and risk aversion declines, risk of flight from money, increasingly large capital outflows.