Is the euro zone's real long-term interest rate abnormally low?

The euro-zone real 10-year interest rate (calculated with the 10-year inflation swap) was 0.5% at the end of February 2024. It averaged 1.9% from 2002 to 2008 and -0.4% from 2012 to 2019. We believe it is now abnormally low, because: The ECB will continue to reduce the size of its balance sheet; Sovereign risk in the euro zone will increase; The euro zone’s investment rate will rise relative to the savings rate; The future short-term interest rate is underestimated.