Is the Eurozone manufacturing deflation?
Edito Mid-September, crude oil prices surged after the drone attacks on the Abqaiq oil processing installation in Saudi Arabia. On 16 September, Brent toyed with $70/bbl. However, this spike proved temporary and, by the end of September, prices were back where they had been at the start of the month. The yield for the 10-year Bund did rise, but it remains some way in negative territory, and this rebound failed to bolster Eurozone breakeven inflation rates. The yield for the 10-year TNote see-sawed over the month, ending up back around 1.6%. Over the last 30 days, equity indices have treaded water or weakened. Finally, inflation remains on low everywhere. In the United Kingdom, it slowed quite significantly in August. In sum, once more last month, there was little susceptible of bolstering linkers. Breakeven for the 10-year Bund€i sits at 0.77%, at its lowest level since last July. Breakeven for the 10-year TIPS reached 1.50% at the month-end. All breakeven inflation rates benefited momentarily from the spike in crude oil prices, but fell back once it became relatively clear that the attacks would end up having a next to nil impact on crude oil prices. It would take an armed conflict between Saudi Arabia, backed by the United States, and Iran to trigger a real oil shock (but the United States is not in the least hurry to go on the warpath).