Is the fall in US interest rates having a positive effect on emerging countries?
A fall in US interest rates is usually positive for emerging countries: it attracts capital to emerging countries, drives down their interest rates and causes their exchange rates to appreciate, leading to an improvement in the terms of trade and to lower inflation, which drives up real income. Since the Federal Reserve started cutting its interest rates again (mid-2019), are there signs of these positive developments in emerging countries? Or have they been dominated by other negative developments (political crises, economic sanctions, industrial recession and weak global trade)? We find that emerging countries’ interest rates have fallen and they have received capital inflows, but there has been no exchange rate appreciation, no fall in inflation and no upturn in growth .