Is the slowdown in industry cyclical or enduring?
There is currently a marked slowdown in industry in all OECD countries:Â It is cyclical if it is due to temporary factors: downturn in corporate investment or in household purchases of durable goods after a period of sharp growth in this investment or these purchases; It is structural if it is due to lasting factors: transformation of the global economy into a service economy, slowdown in Chinese growth, contraction in industries linked to fossil energies. We believe both forms of slowdown in industry are present currently, and that the structural- type slowdown will gain further momentum.