Is the world in persistent deflation?
If the world is in persistent deflation, real interest rates are going to remain low and the high debt ratios are not a danger. What would indicate that the world is in persistent deflation, beyond low real interest rates? A high global private savings rate, which may be due to the skewing of income distribution to the detriment of wage earners or to precautionary savings; A low ( ex ante ) global investment rate, which may be due to declining housing investment and the world’s transformation into a service economy (leading to a lower structural need to invest). We see: A higher global private savings rate; Lower housing investment after the crisis, but which is now recovering; Persistently high global productive investment, despite the declining weight of industry. So it is not completely clear that the world is in deflation.