Report
Patrick Artus

Is the world in persistent deflation?

If the world is in persistent deflation, real interest rates are going to remain low and the high debt ratios are not a danger. What would indicate that the world is in persistent deflation, beyond low real interest rates? A high global private savings rate, which may be due to the skewing of income distribution to the detriment of wage earners or to precautionary savings; A low ( ex ante ) global investment rate, which may be due to declining housing investment and the world’s transformation into a service economy (leading to a lower structural need to invest). We see: A higher global private savings rate; Lower housing investment after the crisis, but which is now recovering; Persistently high global productive investment, despite the declining weight of industry. So it is not completely clear that the world is in deflation.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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