Report
Patrick Artus

Is there a cyclical shortfall in demand in the euro zone?

It is often claimed that since euro-zone monetary policy cannot be used more to stimulate demand, a more expansionary fiscal policy must be used in the euro zone. This assumes that there is a cyclical shortfall in demand in the euro zone. But is that really the case? When we look at the employment rate, the unemployment rate and companies' hiring difficulties, we rather have the sentiment that the euro zone is close to full employment. If the euro zone is at full employment, stimulating demand would actually reduce its external surplus, but with a muted effect on production: demand for goods and services is weak in the euro zone relative to full employment, but the weakness of demand is not leading to a loss of production or unemployment. In this configuration, the problem is not a cyclical shortfall in demand, but a shortfall in full employment production. Stimulating demand will make sense only if potential GDP is increased by a rise in labour productivity or in labour force skills, which may require well-targeted public investments, but not a stimulatory countercyclical fiscal policy.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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