Report
Patrick Artus

Is there a level of interest rates low enough to avoid a public debt crisis and high enough to avoid asset price bubbles?

To avoid a public debt crisis, government bond yields must be lower than nominal potential growth. To avoid an equity bubble, long-term interest rates plus a normal equity risk premium must be higher than nominal long-term growth; and to avoid a real estate bubble, long-term interest rates on mortgage loans must be higher than nominal long-term growth. This makes it possible to define the risk-free long-term interest rate level that prevents both public debt crises and asset price bubbles. In the United States, it ranges (for the 10-year interest rate) between 2.3% and 4%; in the euro zone, between 1.8% and 2.8%. These two objectives (no public debt crisis, no bubbles) can therefore be achieved if long-term interest rates stabilise between these levels.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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