Is there a link between output gap and inflation?

Some economists, especially in the United States, are concerned that the output gap (the gap between GDP and potential GDP) could become positive from 2022 (in the United States, later in the euro zone), and that this could bring back inflation. It is true that the COVID crisis, given the fall in the investment rate and the participation rate, has reduced potential GDP, and that this may rapid ly give rise to a positive output gap. But we seek to determine whether there is a correlation between output gap and headline or core inflation. The disappearance of this correlation may result from: The weak Phillips curve effects (the effect of the unemployment rate on wage growth); The ability to import without difficulty to meet domestic demand if it is strong relative to potential production. Statistical analysis shows a very sharp reduction in the link between headline or core inflation and output gap since 2010, both in the United States and the euro zone. So the current upswing in the output gap does not mean that inflation will rise.