Is there a risk of a persistently weaker growth recovery in the euro zone than in the United States?

In the first half of 2021, growth is significantly higher in the United States than in the euro zone, thanks to both less stringent public health restrictions and a faster vaccination rollout in the United States. But could growth remain permanently higher in the United States than in the euro zone? This will be the case if: On the demand side, fiscal policy remains more expansionary in the United States than in the euro zone and household confidence picks up faster in the United States than in the euro zone; On the supply side, companies’ financial situation is less bad in the United States than in the euro zone, paving the way for a stronger investment recovery in the United States; Structural factors (demographics, technological progress) already present before the COVID crisis persist. Stronger growth in the United States than in the euro zone would have the expected effects on financial markets, the dollar, inflation, etc.