Is there an anomaly in the formation of long-term interest rates in the United States today?
In the United States, inflation is high, expected inflation is also high, the Federal Reserve is sending the message that it may reduce its debt purchases in 2022 and raise short-term interest rates in 2023, companies’ hiring difficulties are significant (even though wages are not accelerating for the time being), and yet long-term interest rates are not rising. One might then ask: Whether the stability of long-term interest rates results from their normal, usual determinants (short-term interest rates, stock of bonds held by the central bank, level of global savings, expected inflation), which, on the whole, always leads to low interest rates; Or whether it results from a change (anomaly) in the formation of long-term interest rates in the United States. Econometric analysis shows that: The historical explanation for long-term interest rates in the United States still works very well today; The persistently low level of dollar long-term interest rates is due to the fact that the expansionary monetary policy has offset the rise in expected inflation.