Report
Patrick Artus

Is there reason to fear a banking crisis in the euro zone?

We know the sources of concern about banks' situation: The very low level of interest rates and the flat yield curves that reduce intermediation margins; The rise in bankruptcies and unemployment as a result of the COVID crisis. But we should not forget that banks in the euro zone: Can obtain funding at -1% and therefore generate a positive carry, including on holding government bonds; Will not be faced with a very sharp rise in corporate bankruptcies or in household defaults , thanks to government protection; Will benefit from the fact that many companies have not used the loans drawn down in 2020, and will therefore be able to repay them; Had very high capital levels at the beginning of the crisis. The way euro-zone banks' share prices have reacted to the crisis therefore seems very excessive and there is no reason to fear credit rationing.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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