Is there reason to fear a sharp slowdown in the US economy?
US growth in 2021 is already being slowed down by: The fact that the household savings rate remains high; The sluggish recovery in employment, which companies’ hiring difficulties may reflect ; The United States' high marginal propensity to import. But there is reason to fear a sharp slowdown in the US economy in 2022, due to: The reduction in the fiscal deficit compared to 2021, as the size of the stimulus package will have to be reduced for Congress to accept it, and the end of the temporary measures to shore up the economy; The Federal Reserve's tapering (reduction in purchases of securities), which, even if it does not drive up long-term interest rates that much, may push down financial markets and generate negative wealth effects; Perhaps, as after the subprime crisis, a decline in the participation rate if employees prefer not to return to the labour market.