Report
Patrick Artus

Is there still a crowding-out effect?

T he usual Keynesian model contains a crowding-out effect: if fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, interest rates rise, which reduces private sector demand and the stimulatory effect of the fiscal policy. First, we examine whether or not there have been crowding - out effect s in the large OECD countries over different periods. We then examine the mechanisms that may eliminate crowding-out effect s . In principle, they could be: An increase in private sector savings and therefore in private sector demand for public debt; E xpansionary monetary policy in response to expansionary fiscal policy. We find that: Crowding-out effects, which had been present, disappeared in the decade of the 2010s in all countries except Japan; This was due to the reactions of both household savings and monetary policy.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

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Analysts
Patrick Artus

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