Report
Patrick Artus

It is easy to adjust to falling interest rates, but very difficult to adjust to rising interest rates

Interest rates have been on a downward trend in OECD countries for nearly 40 years. Economic agents (governments, companies, households, financial sector) have easily adjusted to this fall in interest rates by : Increasing debt ratios; Increasing debt leverage, among companies (debt-financed share buybacks) and banks; Developing "leveraged" finance (hedge funds, LBOs, etc.). But if interest rates were to rise again in the future, the adjustment would be difficult, painful and costly: deleveraging, equity market financing and no longer debt financing , disappearance of "leveraged finance". There appears to be a great deal of irreversibility when behaviours have had time to adjust to a low interest rate environment.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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