Report
Patrick Artus

It is possible to have a restrictive fiscal policy, a reduction in the fiscal deficit and yet a rise in the public debt ratio

If the fiscal deficit is excessively high, it is normal for the government to consider implementing a restrictive fiscal policy (public spending cuts, increase in the tax burden). But the risk is as follows: this restrictive fiscal policy may initially reduce the primary fiscal deficit less than expected. The reason is that it leads to a fall in growth, and therefore to a rise in the public debt ratio that counterbalances the fall that results from the reduction in the fiscal deficit, and the public debt ratio may therefore rise more than if fiscal policy had not been made more restrictive. The paradoxical result is that the desire to reduce the fiscal deficit may trigger a rise in the public debt ratio and a financial crisis in public debt.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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