Report
Patrick Artus

It needs to be explained to the Germans why they should accept a “reforms for solidarity” deal with the other euro-zone countries

The Europeans must explain to the Germans that it is in their interest to accept an arrangement with the other European countries in which: These countries implement reforms; Germany agrees to the introduction of solidarity mechanisms (a euro-zone budget, a euro-zone investment fund, pooling of some components of social welfare) in the euro zone, which is clearly no longer the case at present. Without this type of arrangement: The euro-zone countries may abandon their reforms ( as in the present case of Italy), resulting in weak growth, high fiscal deficits and a threat to the stability of the euro zone; Given that it is inconceivable that the ECB or the ESM would let a euro-zone country - especially a large one - default or leave the euro, if a country did not implement reforms and this resulted in a public finance or debt crisis, this country would be bailed out by the ECB or the ESM, which would ultimately entail a cost for Germany (unsuitable monetary policy for Germany, guarantees for the loans to the country in difficulty). Even if solidarity is costly for Germany, which has a higher per capita income than the rest of the euro zone, it is in its interest to accept a deal of solidarity in return for reforms in the other euro-zone countries . This would spare it from the risk of weak growth or an economic and financial crisis resulting from a lack of reforms in the other countries.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

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Analysts
Patrick Artus

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