Report
Patrick Artus

Italy: What if growth in reality was higher than what is published?

Some Italian economists believe that Italian growth is higher than what is published. The argument is that national accountants in Italy do not use the quality effects that they use in other European countries, which lead to a downward correction in prices and an increase in volumes in these other countries. Admittedly, the stagnation of labour productivity is surprising in Italy since Italy has automated its companies more than France has . To determine whether this argument makes sense, we compare trends in values, volumes and prices (deflators) of exports, corporate investment and GDP. We see that it is not impossible for Italian real growth to be underestimated by 10 to 20 percentage points in 20 years compared with France and Germany, but not compared with Spain. Real growth in Italy probably remains lower than in the other countries, but less than what is measured at present.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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