Rates weekly: Mind the gap between the tweets and reality

EUR rates - Recap of the week: Oil and Middle East conflict-related headlines continue to be the main driver of market sentiment. Rate hike anticipations have been tempered somewhat but not removed by a (fragile) ceasefire and softer PPI data in the US. Central banks (especially the ECB and Fed) are reinforcing optionality, and markets are nudging terminal rates lower at the margin while curves stay modestly positively sloped in the euro area and broadly stable in the US.Tactical view: Headline risk remains too significant. We remain on the cautious side overall. Along with our existing perfor...

TACO, FOMO, consolidation : Our weekly cross-asset views

As the world swings between hopes for a deal and uncertainty about its timing, equity markets have clearly chosen the optimistic path. US indices have reached new all-time highs this week, driven by a tech rally, a generally positive start to the earnings season, but above all by a very strong FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). The major world equity benchmarks have now virtually erased the entire Iran-war shock. This is also true for HY credit and EM spreads which have remained immune to the global environment of rising rates and rising risks.The complacency also extends, in our view, to long-run in...

¿Puede aún la India llegar a ser como China? Investigación sobre la Gran Divergencia asiática