Report
Patrick Artus

Keeping long-term interest rates at zero is easier in Japan than in the United States or the euro zone

To ensure governments' fiscal solvency, central banks are now switching to a policy of keeping long-term interest rates at a very low level ("yield curve control"). Can this policy be maintained in the medium term ? In Japan, apart from particular shocks (sharp depreciation of the yen, VAT hike), core inflation has been zero or even negative; it is therefore not very shocking for a bond holder to receive a zero yield; In the United States and the euro zone, apart from recessions, core inflation has fluctuated between 1% and 2.5% as unit labour costs have been rising while they have been falling on average in Japan. So it is more difficult to keep nominal long-term interest rates very low in the United States and the euro zone than in Japan, given the risk of massive bond sales in the United States and the euro zone that would require even greater central bank bond purchases than in Japan .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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