Key points for the economic scenarios for the next two to three years

The economic scenarios for the next two to three years in OECD countries crucially depend on a few factors and behaviours: Of course, the moment when health constraints disappear and therefore when there is a return to a normal level of production and a low degree of underemployment. Developments in fiscal and monetary policies, inflation, etc. will depend on when this happens. Public policies between fiscal stimulus and the need to guarantee fiscal solvency. Arbitrage will determine the trajectory of future potential growth. The causes of low long-term interest rates: what is the contribution of expansionary monetary policies, what is the contribution of excess global private savings and strong demand for risk-free bonds: this will determine the extent of the rise in interest rates when central banks end their highly expansionary monetary policies. Whether or not inflation will pick up, given the multiple structural factors that ought to bring back inflation: more favourable policies for low wages, return to regional value chains, population ageing, energy transition. A return of inflation would be a significant shock with the resulting and unexpected rise in interest rates. The state of the banking system. Interest rate movements will impact banks’ profitability and their capacity to lend in the next two to three years. The use that will be made of the excess private savings accumulated since the start of 2020. If they are used to buy goods and services, production will recover faster and inflationary pressures will appear faster; if they are used to buy assets, asset prices will rise even more. The reaction of central banks and governments to the rise in asset prices (equities, real estate, etc.) and to the increase in wealth inequality. Could this result in a shift to more restrictive monetary policies, or could there only be a development of policies to combat poverty and support low wages?