Report
Patrick Artus

Lasting negative productivity shock due to COVID: What consequences?

It now seems that the COVID pandemic is going to persist and therefore so will the associated public health measures. We know that these measures sharply reduc e labour productivity in companies. This leads us to look at the consequences of a lasting fall in labour productivity: Either prices will rise or nominal wages will fall, real wages will fall and households will bear the cost of the fall in productivity; Or competition and weak demand will prevent prices from rising, nominal wages are rigid, profit margins will fall and companies will bear the cost of the fall in productivity. For the time being, the second scenario (fall in profit margins) is prevailing . B ut since : The problem is global, which eliminates the competition argument; Companies have strong bargaining power; It is difficult to reduce nominal wages, then it is likely that there will be a shift to the first scenario, with inflation and a fall in real wages, if the public health measures related to COVID have to be kept in place for a long period.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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