Natixis - Lire lâ€™avenir dans le passÃ©Â ? un indice de similaritÃ©

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Natixis

Emilie TETARD ...

Florent Pochon

Lire lâ€™avenir dans le passÃ©Â ? un indice de similaritÃ©

A-t-on dÃ©jÃ observÃ© des configuration s de marchÃ© similaire s Ã celle dâ€™aujourdâ€™hui Â ? Sur la base de 17 variables macroÃ©conomiques et financiÃ¨res amÃ©ricaines, n ous construisons une mesure simple, mais statistique et objective, de similaritÃ© . Cet indicateur de similaritÃ© montre que les pÃ©riodes dont les configuration s macro-financiÃ¨res sont les plus proches dâ€™aujourdâ€™hui sont fin 1995, dÃ©but 1998 , dÃ©but 2007 et dÃ©but 2013 . Quel le s leÃ§on s tirer du passÃ©Â ? L es performances observÃ©es historiquement Ã la suite de ce s configurations confirment un scÃ©nario de fin de cycle, avec Ã court ter me une surperformance des actifs risquÃ©s et Ã un horizon plus long (entre 1 et 2 ans ) une configuration de type rÃ©cession ave c une surperformance de lâ€™obligataire souverain.

10/04/2019 6 FR

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Analysts

Emilie TETARD

Florent Pochon

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Lire lâ€™avenir dans le passÃ©Â ? un indice de similaritÃ©

Japan: Macro and geopolitics brew winners in industrials, IT and financials

Section 899: A tool to increase revenue or to change foreign tax policy?

ECB Takes Summer Pause to Preserve Monetary Policy Flexibility

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