Lockdown 2.0: What high-frequency indicators say for France #23

Just ten days after the start of the second lockdown in France, we make an initial assessment of the health situation and the impact in terms of activity and household behaviour: Health situation: the first signs of a lull? Laboratory data indicate that the rate of contamination is beginning to slow down . Both the positivity rate and the incidence rate have been declining over the past few days, with the number of tests at record levels. Hospital data do not yet show a clear reversal, although the figures for the last few days have been encouraging . Autumn worse than spring? The increase in hospitalisations is as rapid as last spring. In contrast, the increase in the number of patients in intensive care is much slower. There is a change in the age group structure of hospitalisation and intensive care: the percentage of 30 39, 40-49, 50-59 and 60-69 year olds in total hospitalisations is markedly lower than in the spring. Among the most senior age groups, there has been a near-stabilisation of the percentage of 70 79 year olds and a significant increase in the age groups above . The age group structure of patients in intensive care shows the same trends. Activity and travel: an initial assessment The lockdown implemented on 30 October is less strict than last spring, both in terms of restricting activities and movement. We use several high-frequency indicators to assess the early effect of lockdown 2.0: Contrary to what was seen in the spring, electricity consumption has not fallen in relation to the same period in 2019 . Mobility indicators show a decline in all travel categories, but with significant nuances depending on the category. Lastly, there is a major difference from the first lockdown: the development of click-and-collect services . Data extracted from Google shows a surge in searches for click-and-collect . This development reflects the accelerated digit is ation of stores and restaurateurs. The rapid development of this type of service should make it possible to cushion part of the drop in activity caused by this second lockdown .