Long BTP 10/40 vs OAT 5/40

T he market has been d epricing a big portion of the french political risk in the 10 Y OAT-Bund . However, PM Bayrou faces significant internal challenges and criticism, raising the risk of a no-confidence vote, which could destabilize the political landscape. Meanwhile, Italian PM Meloni emphasizes fiscal caution and avoids escalating tensions with the U.S., suggesting limited changes to Italy's public debt scenario. Given these dynamics, the OATs may underperform BTPs in the near term. Therefore, we propose a tactical trade strategy: enter a long position in the BTP 3.85% 10/40 versus the OAT 0.5% 5/40 spread at 53bp, targeting 40bp with a stop-loss at 61bp over a three-month horizon.