Report
Cyril Regnat ...
  • Théophile LEGRAND

Long BTP 30Y vs. BTP 10Y in ASW

With new fears about the US banking system and some risk s of market s disappointment s over the rate cut scenario, we think it makes sense to position for a tactical repricing of the credit risk ( weak economic outlook, depricing of rate cut expectations + risk-off configuration ). The 10-30 Y BTP ASW is historically correlated with the 10Y BTP-Bund and has lagged in recent months . Any widening of the BTP-Bund would translate into an underperformance of the 10Y tenor on the ASW curve , hence our recommendation to go long 30Y vs. 10Y in ASW (entry: - 8 6 bp; target: -65bps; stop-loss: - 93bp; horizon: 3m).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Cyril Regnat

Théophile LEGRAND

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