Report
Long-term interest rates at the end of 2023 are definitely not at their equilibrium level
Since the start of October 2023, nothing seems to be able to prevent the fall in long-term interest rates and the resulting rise in stock market indices. However, we know that inflation will be higher in the future than it was between 2002 and 2007, due to tighter labour markets on average, the costs of the energy transition and industrial reshoring, and OPEC's policy of maintaining a fairly high oil price. If inflation is higher on average in the future than it was between 2002 and 2007, long-term interest rates are likely to be higher in the future than they were between 2002 and 2007, which is not at all the case at the end of 2023, and which is therefore an anomaly, an error.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
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