Tech Markets – Q1-25: hedge in May, and go away?

On April 9th, a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs (excluding China) propelled the Nasdaq up 12.2%, marking its largest one-day gain since January 2001 and signaling the start of a rapid V-shaped recovery. With valuations now at or above pre-Liberation levels, we are reassessing our view on Big Tech. The first part of this paper examines the performance of the Magnificent 7 and our views on Nasdaq valuations amid an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment. We question whether the market has surged too far too quickly and if this enthusiasm warrants a more cautious perspective.The seco...

Sell the OLO in the Bund – OLO – Bono 10Y fly

Fitch could downgrade Belgium this Friday, triggering an underperformance of OLO. In the meantime, US tariffs announcements in the next two weeks could weight on risky assets and trigger a widening of sovereign spreads which are now relatively tight. In order to benefit from these potential headlines, we recommend entering in a Bund 8/34 – OLO 6/34 – Bono 4/34 butterfly, selling the belly and buying the wings . The strategy trades around 40bp and we target a rebound towards 50bp in the next month. Our stop-loss is set at 35bp.

US unilateral tariff rates within 2 weeks ?