Markets waiting for a new impetus
The first quarter ended with a measured rise in US 10-year long-term interest rates (+40bp) compared with the fall seen between November and December ( 120bp). The dollar also rallied against all currencies on the back of a sharp reduction in expectations of a Fed rate cut to just 67bp from 160bp at the start of the year. Against this backdrop of a soft landing for the US economy, the equity markets (and bitcoin) ended the quarter in style with new record highs. Faced with the prospect of key interest rates being cut by the major central banks, market volatility fell significantly. As we approach the second quarter, the market is looking for a new direction or impetus. In this respect, the indicators expected this week (ISM, US employment, eurozone inflation) could bring the markets some clarity.