Medium-term inflation outlook: Inflation will be higher on average and much more volatile

In 2022-2023, inflation in OECD countries is expected to fall from its high point at the end of 2021, due to the downward correction in commodity prices and intermediate consumption by companies, and the normalisation of the structure of demand. But from 2024, it is likely that we will see: Higher inflation on average, due to the energy transition (intermittent production of renewable energies, replacement of old depreciated capital with new capital to be depreciated); High variability in inflation due to periodic drastic spikes in fossil fuel prices due to the fact that climate policies may cause fossil fuel supply to fall faster than fossil fuel demand. “Inflation risk”, in these two dimensions, will therefore become higher.