Report
Patrick Artus

Monetary policy: Where are the conflicts of objectives?

Traditionally, monetary policy has been a trade-off between the fight to reduce unemployment and the fight against inflation, so the two objectives that may come into conflict are low unemployment and low inflation. But the correlation between unemployment and core inflation has disappeared (we look at the cases of the United States and the euro zone), and this initial conflict of objectives has therefore disappeared. The question of financial stability (absence of excessive debt, absence of asset price bubbles, risk premia remaining sufficient) now arises. The question is whether there is a possible conflict between the objective of low unemployment and that of financial stability. Can we see that maintaining an expansionary monetary policy when the unemployment rate is already low leads to financial instability? We believe the answer is yes for certain aspects of financial instability: risk premia that are too low on risky bonds; excessive rise in real estate prices; excessive increase in public debt in several countries, and in private debt in few countries. There is therefore a conflict of objectives between reducing unemployment and financial stability.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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