Report
Patrick Artus

Monetised public debt is not a free lunch

OECD countries are running huge fiscal deficits that are monetised by central banks. It seems there is no longer any limit to increases in fiscal deficits and in public debt, and many economists are advising governments to go even further by taking advantage of the fact that long-term and very long-term interest rates are very low. However, monetised public debt is not a "free lunch". While the increase in this debt is not triggering a rise in long-term interest rates (and therefore no crowding-out) or inflation in goods and services prices, there is no doubt that it will lead to a sharp rise in asset prices (bonds, equities, real estate), and it is here that the costs of this policy must be sought: Lower pensions in the future, since pension fund assets must be bought at higher prices to obtain the same income from these assets; Higher housing costs for young people who have to buy property. The cost of this policy is an inflation tax, which is a tax on young people levied through a rise in financial and real estate asset prices .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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