MORE AND MORE DATA-DEPENDENT MARKETS?

Edito The markets were swept up in the scenario of an imminent American recession after mixed economic activity figures and a dovish speed by J. Powell, who is ready to react if necessary, in particular if there is an escalation in the trade war. The market is reflecting anticipations of Fed rate reductions starting in July with a 68% probability. American economic activity nonetheless continues to be solid, as the ISM services index showed. If there is no news on US-China trade negotiations, macro data (retail sales, production, employment, etc.) will therefore be important for the markets to gauge the “amplitude” of the slowdown in American growth.