Report
Patrick Artus

Must aid to euro-zone countries in difficulty be preceded by a public debt restructuring?

In theory, if a euro-zone country in difficulty asks to borrow from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), then the sustainability of its debt must be examined (by the Eurogroup) and , if it is not sustainable, then its debt must be restructured. The objective is clear: To prevent moral hazard ( to no longer provide full insurance against sovereign default risk); To prevent “vulture” funds, sheltered by this insurance, from making speculative gains on the government bonds of euro-zone countries in difficulty. But it has to be admitted that introducing a risk of public debt restructuring in the euro zone may : Lead to even greater segmentation between the core and the peripheral countries; P ut even more pressure on the ECB if it wants to maintain the integrity of the euro zone “whatever it takes” ; T rigger a jump to a negative equilibrium with a loss of fiscal solvency, since there are always self-fulfilling expectations and multiple equilibria when it comes to public debt .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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