Changing our Fed call – Next cut delayed until October
We have altered our Fed call, pushing out the next cut in the cycle to October , where we previously forecast a cut in September. The resilience in the labor market is the primary reason for pushing out the next cut. The most recent employment report showed a labor market that is continuing to cool a bit, but with few signs of imminent cracks. This will help to confirm that the risk of continuing to wait before resuming the cutting cycle is low and pausing to observe the impact and degree of passthrough from tariffs is the appropriate path. From October , we see consecutive cuts t...