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Natixis Oil Outlook 2019-20 – Market Summary
We conclude: -Calls for $100/ bbl are premature – we expect OPEC + , led by Saudi Arabia and Russia to moderate the worst of the export loss from Iran . -Consumption growth will weaken substantially, with OECD consumption turning negative next year. -Non-OPEC production growth will also come in lower however, with Permian capacity constraints limiting US output growth and producers globally seeing elevated decline rates at mature conventional fields . -Meanwhile OPEC production will largely remain flat as higher output is offset by supply losses elsewhere in the group. -This allows a constructive view on pricing next year, despite the weakening demand outlook. We will be releasing the 2019-20 Natixis Oil Review next week.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Joel Hancock
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