Natixis US Rates Forecast

In 2025, investors, corporations and market participants have already faced a significant amount of volatility and uncertainty. Looking into the second half of 2025 and beyond, we see much of the same, though we do think the fatter tails from risks such as tariffs and inflation have been reduced to some degree. Still, it would be naïve to expect markets to be fully orderly for the balance of the year. Based on our expectation of a resumption of the Fed easing cycle starting in October 2025 and continuing through June of 2026, we see a bull steepening move in US Treasuries with the vast majority of that via lower front-end yields, with 10yr UST’s ending 2025 at 4.10%.