Report
Patrick Artus

Neo-Fisherism should really be considered

Central banks will keep nominal interest rates very low at all maturities for a long time. One of the explanations they give is the level of inflation, which has long been lower than the inflation target. But can we be sure that persistently low nominal interest rates will drive up inflation? In neo-Fisherian theory, it is the other way around. According to neo-Fisherism, the real interest rate is in the long term determined by structural characteristics of the economy (technological progress, savings-investment equilibrium, etc.) and, if the nominal interest rate is low, inflation will be low. This mechanism is totally opposite to that put forward by central banks. So the relevance of neo-Fisherism should really be considered in the current situation. For how long do low nominal interest rates drive down real interest rates (and therefore stimulate demand)? Do they ultimately bring inflation down or not? Evidence from the United States and the euro zone seems to show that the neo-Fisherian hypothesis is entirely consistent with the facts: inflation and nominal interest rates are positively correlated, more so in the long term than in the short term .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

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Patrick Artus

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