No data is good news

The risk-on mode is well in place with most equity indices up for 5 consecutive sessions now, volatilities (implied and realized) and credit spreads flattish at low levels. Our Risk Perception Index is stuck in the 20%-zone since early September now. Gold remains the invariant with another weekly gain (+2.7%) and all-time high (>3860 $/oz).The equity/bond correlation was positive this week with equities up and bond yields down globally as crude oil sinks (Brent -8% wtd). Macro softens but remains solid, the Fed has turned dovish and so far independence holds, tariffs are out of the fore front… the market is now left with AI momentum with many headlines again this week (Open AI deal notably).The US shutdown so far does not bite on risk assets (in line with past shutdown episodes) and leaves the market blind on the US job market (US weekly claims and NFP releases are delayed): the worst-than-expected ADP was the only key job statistics this week, it pushed the US curve in bull steepening (-6.5bps for the 2y US on Tuesday) and it enables the market to surf on the dovish momentum (-47bps of cut priced for EoY) despite cautious Fed speakers. No data is good news