Report
No one can imagine the possibility of growth being weak in France in 2019-2020 - and yet?
The consensus forecast is that growth will remain quite good in France in 2019 and 2020. But yet: Given the fact that the unemployment rate is returning towards the structural unemployment rate, growth will at best be equal to potential growth, i.e. 1.3% per year; And furthermore, if the fiscal deficit has to be reduced in 2022 to the level compatible with France’s European commitments (0.5% of GDP), fiscal policy will become restrictive, since spending will have to be reduced each year; which may drive the growth below potential growth; On top of this there is a downturn in the real estate investment cycle, which can already be seen - and perhaps also in the corporate investment cycle - as a reaction to slowdown in growth. Altogether, we can therefore without any difficulty imagine a weak growth scenario in France, in particular linked to the correction of the excessive fiscal deficits at a time when growth is slow ing down because of supply constraints.
Provider
Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
Other Reports from Natixis
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.