Noise vs US Tech derating - Our weekly cross-asset views

A bit of rest this week on risk assets, with less noise and not some much trends. As of Thursday, the MSCI World $ was up 0.4%, US High Yield spreads were down 8bps, and implied volatility was stable or modestly down across assets. Geographical dispersion in bonds does not abate, with JGBs and Gilts bull steepening, a rather unchanged EUR curve, and a bear flattening of USTs. Our Risk Perception Index fell 5 points to 40. Within equities, Europe and EM LatAm have outperformed this week. Contrary to Europe, US short-term skew has increased; dispersion has fallen this week, but implied correlation remains low. Crude oil was the outlier this week, gaining over 6% wtd (Brent above $71/bbl at a 6-month high), as the likelihood of a US strike on Iran increased. Meanwhile, metals stabilized.The main macro takeaway came from the Fed minutes, which showed that the FOMC’s main concern has shifted from the job market to inflation, pushing the 2y-UST up 6bps and the US dollar up 1% wtd. This confirms our view that the lower bound of the 10y UST is 4%, and that the risk is skewed to the upside ! There has been no major news on the AI front ahead of next week's crucial Nvidia earnings report (Nvidia finalizes a $30 billion investment in OpenAI + BlueOwl liquidity issues), but sentiment has turned less negative this week, with the Mag7 back in the black this week (+0.7%) and software stocks stabilizing.Our view remains construction for risk assets. The non-US vs US equity momentum will persist in our view. We view the derating of US techs as an opportunity in the short run.