Report
Patrick Artus

Nominal long-term growth is lower in the euro zone than in the United States: What implications?

Real potential growth is lower in the euro zone than in the United States, and the same holds for growth in wages and in unit labour costs as well as core inflation. Nominal long-term growth is therefore significantly lower in the euro zone than in the United States, leading to : Lower equilibrium nominal interest rates in the euro zone than in the United States; Initially, a transfer of capital from the euro zone to the United States, with a depreciation of the euro against the dollar; Followed by the emergence of an expected depreciation of the dollar, leading capital to return to the euro zone and actually to a depreciation of the dollar against the euro. The last step in this sequence is yet to get under way; And probably not higher equity valuation in the United States if the yield spread results from the gap between growth rates.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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