NZE targets: Will there be enough primary copper?

In this report, we look into the copper mining sector and assess the amount of capex that will be needed in order to meet primary demand of NZE pathways. We also compare the copper mining sector with that of gold and highlight how much more capex intensive the gold sector is. In theory the refined copper supply needs to achieve NZE targets could be reached. That said, this will require a consistently high capex of around $28bn pa for the next five years followed by around $32bn pa for the next two decades. In practice we show that the 2030 NZE refined copper supply needs will be very hard to reach. Despite a solid energy transition case backing long term demand for copper the gold mining sector is still able to attract more investment funds. This can be mainly explained by an underlying asset whose price is less volatile than base metals. The gold sector alone accounts for almost half of the mining exploration budget and the gold M&A sector is still growing whereas that of copper has shrunk.