Report
Patrick Artus

OECD countries: Low interest rates came at the cost of opening up trade with emerging countries, fossil fuel consumption and the skewing of income distribution against wage earners: Is it a problem if this arrangement changes?

Since the 1990s, OECD countries ha d benefited from ever-lower interest rates thanks primarily to ever-lower inflation. But across the OECD, this ever-lower inflation was obtained by: Opening up trade with emerging countries and China, where production costs were low; but in return, industry was offshored to emerging countries; Investing massively in fossil fuels, which kept their prices low on average; in return, CO 2 emissions rose sharply ; Skewing income distribution against wage earners, which kept wage growth low; the corollary was rising poverty among wage earners and rising inequality. The return to a more inflationary equilibrium should not be lamented if it is accompanied by industrial reshoring in OECD countries, a rapid energy transition and a fair income distribution. The return of inflation and more restrictive monetary policies are the price to pay.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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