Report
Patrick Artus

OECD countries: The end of "cautious" economic policy practices

What were the "cautious" economic policy practices that were used at the time and that have now disappeared? A public debt ratio that was kept stable in the long term, with a fiscal policy that was expansionary during recessions and periods of economic recovery and systematically restrictive during growth periods; Interest rates that were alternatively lower (during recessions and at the beginning of growth periods) and higher (in the second part of growth periods) than the neutral (equilibrium) interest rate. Why have these "cautious" economic policy practices disappeared? Probably because : The small wage increases, due to the skewing of income distribution at the expense of employees, must be counterbalanced by persistently expansionary fiscal and monetary policies; The belief in the definitive disappearance of inflation leads to a belief that interest rates will remain low for a long time, which leads to accept ance of very high debt ratios ; The absolute rejection of recessions since the 2008 crisis for political and financial reasons has led to a rejection of everything that could curb growth .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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